Scientists find two new earthquake faults in Western Washington

Scientists find two new earthquake faults in Western Washington

By Bryan Johnson

SEATTLE -- New earthquake maps for Washington State show there could be some violent shaking from south of Olympia to the Canadian border.

Washingtonians know they live on shaky ground. Sometimes violently shaking ground. But scientists had some nasty surprises up their sleeves Wednesday.

They found two new fault lines -- one near Port Angeles; the other near Bellingham. Both are capable of big quakes.

"This is a big surprise," said Craig Weaver, the earthquake coordinator for the U.S. Geological Survey. "We kind of thought the big earthquakes would be south of Mount Vernon, but now we are up into Whatcom County and we've got evidence of real big earthquakes up in Whatcom County."

Weaver says a quake on that fault line could severely affect Abbotsford, British Columbia.

Scientists are equal opportunity surprisers. They used to think the Whidbey Island Fault stopped at Edmonds.

Wrong. It goes through Woodinville and perhaps to North Bend. That means it goes right through one of the fastest growing areas around.

Among others, Eric and Kirsten Stinnett live there.

"I don't like earthquakes at all," Kirsten Stinnett said. "But it's not going to stop me from living in Washington State." Her husband added: "In fact, we are flying to California today. I'd rather stay up here and take my chances."

In fact, the Stinnetts shouldn't worry. University of Washington Seismologist Bill Steele told KOMO 4 News: "I think for modern structures, homes in particular, they are pretty well constructed for earthquake shaking with the modern codes. Doesn't mean they won't have damage, but they are not likely to collapse and injure people."

Steels says buildings over 10 stories and homes built prior to building code changes in 1975 may need strengthening, or in the case of homes, they may need to be tied to foundations.

A map on display at a Seattle earthquake conference shows in color which areas are most vulnerable. Red is bad. Brown is worse. There is a lot of red and brown in the downtown, Harbor Island, and other areas that have been filled. Some of those areas are where high-rise luxury condos are being built.

Geophysicist Art Frankel put the map together after modeling some 500 earthquake scenarios. He now lives near Golden, Colorado, but is moving to Seattle.

I asked him: " Would you buy a condo in downtown Seattle?" Frankel answered: "Definitely, if I could afford it!" Frankel says once again, the building code is what is critical.

The new earthquake assessment also says if there is a major event in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, it is more likely to create a 9.0 earthquake than an 8.0. (That's ten times larger.) That may sound like bad news, but earthquake expects says it takes about 500 years to build the pressure necessary for a 9.0 quake. Geological records suggest the last such quake was in 1700, meaning that the next big one could be 192 years away.

"Don't hold us to that," Weaver said. "But that is the math."
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